![]() Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast for Denver from Figure 2: the Day 2 (Monday) SPC forecast for thunderstorms and severe weather. We are quite warm for a few days, then cool as a trough moves in and increases rain chances a lot by Friday (Figure 1). The severe threat moves off to the east a bit (Figure 2), but storms can produce hail and heavy rain and winds for a few minutes at any time (pulse storms - Figure 2). The pattern is for moisture and instability to increase a bit each day for the next 10 days (Figure 1). Keep an eye on the western sky! End Tuesday update: The Forecast Discussion The primary risk is hail and high winds again. The SPC graphic is not yet out today, but we have a Marginal risk of severe weather again today (1 out of 5). A full update tomorrow! Plenty of moisture and daytime heating plust a favorable upper air pattern means we continue with a good chance of showers for most of the week ahead. My chaperone duties in Washington DC come to an end today. was an eight-inch monster that fell on Jin Vivian, South Dakota.A healthy chance of afternoon thunderstorms and rain through the next 10 days. The largest hail stone on record in the U.S. More on record-setting hail from our Weather Historian, Christopher C. Lee Scott, who collected the monster stone, originally planned to make daiquiris out of the hailstone but fortunately thought better and placed it in a freezer before turning it over to the National Weather Service for certification. It measured 8.0 inches in diameter, 18.5 inches in circumference, and weighed in at 1.9375 pounds. was that which fell near Vivian, South Dakota in 2010. The largest officially recognized hailstone on record to have been "captured" in the U.S. When the hail becomes too large and heavy to be supported by the updraft, it falls to the ground.The hail stone collides with supercooled droplets and grows in size.Hail forms and is carried upward through the storm by the updraft and held above the freezing line.The weak echo region is created by a strong updraft, which also helps the hail to grow. Rain and hail is what creates the "bounded" portion of the bounded weak echo region (BWER) on radar. Because this process is so fast, everything within the supercooled droplet, including small air bubbles, freezes into the layer, which gives it a cloudy look. Unlike wet growth, the supercooled water meets the ice nucleus and immediately freezes. Since this process is relatively slow (slower than the dry growth process) it results in a layer of clear ice. ![]() In wet growth, supercooled water droplets collide with and spreads across the ice nucleus. ![]() Wet GrowthĪ tiny ice crystal will be the nucleus of the hail stone. There are two methods of hail stone formation and growth that give hail stones their "layered" look. Supercooled water droplets are liquid water drops that are surrounded by air that is below freezing, and they're a common occurrence in thunderstorms. Hail is formed when very strong thunderstorm updrafts meet supercooled water droplets. was in the year 2000, when a man was killed by softball size hail in Fort Worth, Texas. Deaths from hail are rare - the last known death caused by hail in the U.S. Property damage in this storm exceeded $2.4 billion in 2010 dollars. The costliest hailstorm happened in April 2001, from eastern Kansas to southwest Illinois, including the St. Hail causes approximately $1 billion in property and crop damage each year. It can cause serious damage, especially to cars, aircraft, glass-roofed structures and most notably, farmers' crops. Hail is a form of frozen precipitation that's created by strong thunderstorms with fast updrafts - air being pulled upward into a thunderstorm.
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